Small European Films: Challenges and Drivers of Change for Distribution and Exhibition
Executive Summary
This report, part of CresCine – a Horizon Europe-funded project, explores the challenges and opportunities as concerns the distribution and exhibition of films from seven small European film markets —Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Flanders, Ireland, Lithuania, and Portugal. The methodology of the report builds on an earlier report called “Small European Film Markets: Portraits and Comparisons” (2024) that identifies four main orientations in small European film ecosystems: cultural resonance, export, production service and cinematic arts. Using these orientations – or avenues – as a point of departure, the report identifies four primary challenges. The first three, reaching domestic audiences, reaching festivals and international markets, and reaching international theatrical audiences are respectively tied to the cultural resonance, cinematic arts, and export orientations.
Reaching domestic audiences is the key challenge for films that are oriented towards cultural resonance. These films rely heavily on the domestic infrastructure to both show films in theatres and to raise awareness among the audiences. The latter is in particular a challenge when addressing younger audiences.
Reaching festivals and international markets is the key challenge for cinematic arts-oriented films. These films face very high levels of competition when submitting for the most prestigious festivals, which are also key for unlocking international markets. Festival recognition is also strongly tied to a relatively small number of directors, meaning that developing and keeping talent is also a key challenge.
Reaching international audiences is the key challenge for export-oriented films. For most industries reaching any kind of international audiences is very difficult but within the CresCine markets we have identified three distinct export pathways. For Irish films export is a baseline, with a limited domestic market share and relatively easy access to large foreign markets most Irish films reach more audiences internationally than at home. While exports are relatively strong for Danish films, they are largely a by-product, a result of modest admissions in many countries for films that generally perform far better in their home market than internationally. In the Flemish industry most films do not receive any significant international admissions but for some films export is a selective strategy. These films, all family animation, are made specifically for broad international audiences and have in some cases achieved significant exports.
Reaching audiences and catalogs on Video-on-Demand (VoD) is a key challenge for all films, as VoD is becoming the primary means of film consumption. Our analysis finds that there are significant differences in the role VoD, and in particular the US-based global SVoD services, play in the various markets. In some markets there is very little, if any, investments from SVoDs in either commissioned or licensed content. For other markets investments from global SVoDs have offered both investments and a huge global audience.This report, part of CresCine – a Horizon Europe-funded project, explores the challenges and opportunities as concerns the distribution and exhibition of films from seven small European film markets —Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Flanders, Ireland, Lithuania, and Portugal. The methodology of the report builds on an earlier report called “Small European Film Markets: Portraits and Comparisons” (2024) that identifies four main orientations in small European film ecosystems: cultural resonance, export, production service and cinematic arts. Using these orientations – or avenues – as a point of departure, the report identifies four primary challenges. The first three, reaching domestic audiences, reaching festivals and international markets, and reaching international theatrical audiences are respectively tied to the cultural resonance, cinematic arts, and export orientations.
Reaching domestic audiences is the key challenge for films that are oriented towards cultural resonance. These films rely heavily on the domestic infrastructure to both show films in theatres and to raise awareness among the audiences. The latter is in particular a challenge when addressing younger audiences.
Reaching festivals and international markets is the key challenge for cinematic arts-oriented films. These films face very high levels of competition when submitting for the most prestigious festivals, which are also key for unlocking international markets. Festival recognition is also strongly tied to a relatively small number of directors, meaning that developing and keeping talent is also a key challenge.
Reaching international audiences is the key challenge for export-oriented films. For most industries reaching any kind of international audiences is very difficult but within the CresCine markets we have identified three distinct export pathways. For Irish films export is a baseline, with a limited domestic market share and relatively easy access to large foreign markets most Irish films reach more audiences internationally than at home. While exports are relatively strong for Danish films, they are largely a by-product, a result of modest admissions in many countries for films that generally perform far better in their home market than internationally. In the Flemish industry most films do not receive any significant international admissions but for some films export is a selective strategy. These films, all family animation, are made specifically for broad international audiences and have in some cases achieved significant exports.
Reaching audiences and catalogs on Video-on-Demand (VoD) is a key challenge for all films, as VoD is becoming the primary means of film consumption. Our analysis finds that there are significant differences in the role VoD, and in particular the US-based global SVoD services, play in the various markets. In some markets there is very little, if any, investments from SVoDs in either commissioned or licensed content. For other markets investments from global SVoDs have offered both investments and a huge global audience.
Co-Authors
Statement of Originality
The European Commission’s support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents, which reflect the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.
Disclaimer
The European Commission’s support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents, which reflect the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.
Methodology
Desk Research
Most studies that have investigated film distribution and release windows focus on global trends (mostly limited to trade journals and a few academic studies). Little is known however about how global patterns impact EU distributors, a landscape characterized by independent smaller, and fragmented distribution, operating alongside US majors in the European market. This guide therefore aims to capture how windowing strategies have shifted post-COVID-19, amidst a climate of competition between and with streamers and a recovering theatrical industry. The literature for this research is based on industry reports, academic studies, and institutional reports (EU).
Qualitative expert interviews
To explore how windowing strategies have shifted post-COVID-19, this guide adopts a qualitative approach based on expert interviews with European distributors. The aim is to gain in-depth insights into the changes, adaptations, and practices in film release strategies across different regions and market conditions within Europe.
25 active distributors were initially identified. Out of these 25 initial cases, 8 distributors were selected for the interviews, ensuring a diverse representation of European markets that highlight both common patterns and unique practices. The selection criteria included:
● Geographic Location: distributors were chosen from various European regions (Baltic region, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, and Spain) to capture a wide range of market conditions.
● Market Size: participants come from both small and large markets, allowing for comparisons of how market size influences windowing strategies.
● Policies and Regulations: distributors from countries with different regulatory frameworks and national policies on film distribution, particularly regarding release windows, were included to reflect the impact of policies.
● Years of Experience: the guide includes distributors with varying years of activity in the industry, providing perspectives from both veteran and emerging players.
Semi-structured interviews were conducted and focused on topics such as adaptations in release windows during and after COVID-19, shifts in collaboration with streaming platforms, and the evolution of audience behavior and demand. The interviews were transcribed and analyzed using thematic analysis. This thematic approach allowed the research to systematically examine patterns and variations across different market conditions and distributor practices. To ensure confidentiality all participants were anonymized. Company affiliations, distributors’ names, and any identifying details were removed from the analysis.
Stakeholders involved in the guide
European distributors
The selected distributors conduct different types of activities. They usually run distribution as their main business but they also offer various activities as producers, cinema, and/or streaming platform owners. They release different types of films: arthouse, documentaries, and animation. The list also identifies who was interviewed, and their position in the distribution company:
A Contracorriente (Spain) - Eduardo Escudero (Co-Founder)
Founded in 2009, A Contracorriente is a Spanish film distribution, production, VoD, and Free advertising-supported streaming television (FAST) company. They also manage two cinemas. Specializing in European and independent films and releasing 45 films per year on average, they are one of the leading Spanish distributors in the theatrical market.
Camera Film (Denmark) - Kim Foss (Director)
Camera Film is a distribution company releasing 15 to 20 films a year. They own their streaming platform and run a cinema where they screen their films. They specialize in arthouse films, competition films from major festivals, documentaries, and animation, Japanese in particular.
Cherry Pickers (Belgium, Netherlands & Luxembourg) - Huub Roelvink (Founder, Owner and Managing Director)
Cherry Pickers is a distribution company based in the Netherlands. They consider themselves “publishers” of films for the Benelux territory. They specialize in theatrical releases (and never buy exclusively for other platforms) in arthouse cinema and distribute a couple of documentaries a year. They focus on European films, but not exclusively.
Greta Garbo Films (Lithuania) - Greta Akcijonaite (Founder & Executive Director)
Greta Garbo Films (2017) is a Lithuanian distributor, releasing around 15 films per year, and also offering consulting services to other distributors (release, promotional campaign, and booking of cinema). It works closely with the Baltic states, distributing its films in Lithuania. The company was growing, but COVID-19 had a major impact on its activity. Greta also works as a producer, with short films for now, to produce feature films.
Gutek Film (Poland) - Marek Bień (Deputy Financial Director)
Gutek Film (1994) is a leading Polish arthouse distributor concentrating on international films, with a big part of their lineup coming from Europe. They release 12 to 16 films per year. They also run the Muranów cinema in Warsaw since 1994 and a VOD platform.
Lucky Red (Italy) - Stefano Massenzi (Head of Acquisitions and Business Affairs)
Lucky Red (1987) is both an Italian distribution and production company, and it also has a majority share in a circuit of arthouse cinemas in Italy. It is an independent, integrated player in the Italian market. They release around 30 films per year, solely on the Italian market.
Picl (Netherlands & Belgium) - Noortje Van de Sande (Managing Director)
Active in the Netherlands since 2017 and Belgium since 2021, Picl aims to encourage audiences to engage more with European arthouse films. Operating as a virtual cinema, Picl collaborates with 39 cinemas in the Netherlands and 4 in Belgium, offering a curated selection of films.
The Searchers (Belgium, Netherlands & Luxembourg) - Olivier Van den Broeck (Head of Strategy)
Launched at the 2015 Toronto Film Festival, The Searchers is an independent film distribution company based in Antwerp, operating across the BENELUX region. Their catalog features a mix of blockbusters and independent films, with a strong emphasis on commercially appealing, English-language titles. These films are characterized by high production quality, notable casts, and a focus on engaging a young core audience.
Work with Lumière
This guide also draws insights from the piloting of four films released by Lumière. These pilots were released in 2023 and 2024 and aimed to test and evaluate various distribution strategies, analyze the recoupment waterfall, and assess their impact on cumulative revenue and the lifespan of film titles. Lumière’s involvement in this guide has been crucial to understanding and practically experimenting with how they develop and implement their distribution strategies. In their words, Lumière is “a complete ecosystem in which production, film financing, distribution, its platform, four city cinemas, and an animation studio work closely together to bring the best stories to a wide audience in the Benelux. A strong focus on arthouse films and quality TV drama and a great nose for Scandinavian success stories are [their] pillars.” Lumière traces its origins back to 1996 when Jan De Clercq and Alexander Vandeputte established a small cultural cinema in Bruges. Over time, Lumière expanded its focus to include film production and distribution, becoming a significant publisher and distributor of DVDs and later launching its own VOD platform. In 2014, Lumière revived Cinema Cartoons in Antwerp after its bankruptcy, followed by the creation of a second arthouse theatre in the city, Cinema Lumière Antwerp, in 2019. Around the same time, Lumière began developing a new cinema location in Mechelen’s former city festival hall, which officially opened as Lumière Mechelen in 2021. Looking ahead to 2024, Lumière is considering the acquisition of Studio Skoop in Ghent and Cinema Cameo in Sint-Truiden and is exploring the possibility of establishing a new city cinema in Ostend.
The first pilot, J'aime la vie, is a semi-autobiographical film directed by Mathias Sercu, who is also a well-known actor in Flanders. The film, centered on the themes of cancer and family, and inspired by Sercu’s personal experience with his brother’s illness, received significant media attention, with Sercu sharing his story in various outlets. The cast includes actors who are popular in Flanders, though they are less recognized internationally or in the French-speaking region. Released across 48 screens in Flanders, the film enjoyed a strong theatrical run, with a “second life” following its initial release: starting from February 14, 2024, around Valentine’s Day, 20 cultural centers requested screenings, with fully booked special events and audience Q&As featuring Sercu. This circuit expanded to include town tours, screenings in both arthouse and commercial cinemas, and school showings. The film's distribution strategy was optimized to broaden its reach and appeal, with VRT as co-producer and Lumiere as both distributor and producer. The collaboration allowed for strategic planning, including the VAF 1+1 ticket campaign and partnerships with broadcasters and streaming platforms. While J’aime la vie resonated strongly in Flanders, it faced challenges in French-speaking Belgium, where a cultural divide and unfamiliar cast limited its reception. Despite receiving positive reviews from the press, J'aime la vie struggled to gain traction in international festivals, as its unique blend of commercial and arthouse elements didn’t align with their typical selections. However, screenings abroad were planned, with events such as the Sea Festival in the Netherlands and potential broadcasts in countries like Poland and South Korea.
The second pilot film, Les poings serrés, was released in Belgium on February 7, 2024. This French-speaking film had received a grant from the French-speaking community and was particularly promoted through premieres in French-speaking cities. Its February release date coincided with a highly competitive period, as many films launched around this time to take advantage of the profitable lead-up to the Oscars in March. Despite the crowded market, Les poings serrés attracted more visitors than initially expected, boosted by strong word-of-mouth and positive reviews. However, these favorable impressions were not fully reflected in box office numbers. No international screenings were planned for the film. Lumiere held a minority co-producer role in the project, and 750 DVD units were set for production to support its physical distribution.
The third pilot film, La Sirène, was released in Belgium on February 28, 2024. Lumiere, with its extensive experience in adult animation, supported the film’s promotion and distribution. La Sirène was screened at notable festivals, including the Anima Festival in Brussels, the Berlinale, the Annecy Animation Festival, and Film Fest Gent. The film had previously been released in France and Germany in 2023, but those releases performed poorly, leading to a reduced budget for prints and advertising. The film received average reviews and, as a niche production, faced challenges in attracting a broad audience.
The fourth pilot Milano was released in Belgium on November 6, 2024. Inspired by a true story, this first Flemish film by Christina Vandekerckhove is an intimate social drama that highlights the difficult reality of a deaf-mute child and his strong relationship with his father. In early 2024, Lumière held the first screening of Milano. On May 27, a business-to-business (B2B) screening took place at Kinepolis Ghent, attended by cinema representatives. Before the official release, cinemas organized pre-release screenings. The world premiere took place on October 15 at the Ghent Film Festival. Before this, private screenings were arranged with ambassadors to generate word-of-mouth publicity. Additionally, special screenings were held in collaboration with organizations supporting deaf individuals and those who face financial barriers to attending the cinema. Lumière collaborated with a data agency to develop a dedicated website for Milano. The landing page includes the film’s synopsis, trailer, and a "showtime" button that directs users to purchase tickets for screenings in Flanders. When users select a cinema, they are redirected to the specific ticketing platform for that venue. On October 15, an online campaign was launched across social media platforms to engage audiences. The primary target audience is predominantly female, around 45 years old, similar to the audience for Close. A collaboration with VRT, the film’s co-producer, provided €40,000 worth of media space. Lumière opted to use this budget primarily for a television spot, supplemented by radio advertisements. Additional support came from the VAF 1+1 campaign, which began after November 6, with a portion of the budget allocated for advertising on VRT. In early December 2024, Milano had reached approximately 45,000 admissions, a figure comparable to Julie Keeps Quiet. Milano is set for release in the Netherlands between February and March 2025. As Lumière explains, the distribution model aligns with the Danish approach, which serves as an example for VAF in terms of market size, government support, and industry structure. Typically, after an eight-week theatrical run, the film transitions to screenings in cultural centers. However, the distribution strategy remains flexible—if the film underperforms, exhibitors have the option to withdraw it early, while successful films may be extended. These decisions are made in consultation with the distributor.
Introduction
In the report Small European Film Markets: Portraits and Comparisons, we compare seven small film industries, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Flanders (Belgium), Ireland, Lithuania and Portugal. We argue that our small industries are in varying degrees oriented towards production service activities or the production of films that have cultural resonance, artistic merit, or export potential. The avenues can be distinguished from each other on the basis of a number of parameters including the primary policy fields that form the regulatory framework for the avenue, the underlying financing logic, as well as the legitimacy and success criteria of each avenue. Schematically, the four avenues can be delineated as seen below:
Although this model is developed on the basis of empirically identifiable parameters, it is presented here as a theoretical model existing at an industry or ecosystem level. In other words, we use it not as a mapping tool but as a conceptual frame that enables us to discuss challenges and drivers of change at a more general level, in this case focusing in particular on distribution and exhibition.
“Small European films: challenges and drivers of change for distribution and exhibition” highlights three core distribution challenges in the traditional cinematic window: reaching domestic audiences, reaching festivals and international distributors, and reaching international audiences (the fourth avenue called “production service” is excluded from this report due to its focus on stimulating incoming productions). The three core challenges are closely aligned with the three orientations:
A key underlying logic of the cultural resonance-orientation is to connect with a wide domestic audience.
A key underlying logic of the cinematic arts-orientation is to reach festivals and the international art cinema circuit.
A core challenge of the export-oriented avenue is to reach substantial international audiences.
While the three avenues face distinct challenges to distribution, the main driver of change across them all is the transition from the era of a dominant but somewhat distant Hollywood to what Ramon Lobato describes as a “US-based globally dispersed platform ecology” (2024, vii). This has in particular affected a fourth core distribution challenge, which we broadly describe as reaching audiences on VOD, which we find across the three avenues of orientation. While American cinema has long been understood as both a friend and foe of European cinema (e.g. Abel 1984; Elsaesser 2005; Biltereyst, Gipponi, and Miconi 2023), Lobato rightly suggests that the arrival of the streamers has transformed these transcultural encounters. Previously, these encounters were channeled through various local intermediaries and traditional media conglomerates (Øfsti 2023), where Hollywood films served as both competition for domestic and other European films while simultaneously being essential for the local cinema infrastructure. These encounters are now happening in globalized networks that do not require European middlemen, and on terms defined by US tech companies such as Amazon, Apple and Netflix – what Catherine Johnson refers to as digital natives (2019). The tensions and dynamics are on the one hand reboots of well-known tensions and dynamics prior to streaming but they are also recast, meaning that the political, regulatory (Cole et al. 2022), technological, economic, social and aesthetic repercussions are different.
Although there is much to be concerned about from a small nations-perspective, the consequences of platformization within the TV and music industries are arguably more fundamental since their primary release windows are at stake whereas the primary release window of feature films - the theatrical release window – has yet again proven to be a stabilizing factor in the film industry in Europe and elsewhere. The recovery rate of European cinema admissions seemingly converging around 80% of pre-Covid admissions (2017-19) remains a major concern (EAO 2024) but the potential collapse of the theatrical window that appeared on the horizon during Covid has now subsided (Ene et al. 2024). Warner Bros. announcing a simultaneous release of its 2021-slate of films in theaters and on HBO Max today appears more Covid-specific than the watershed it could have potentially been. That said, ‘working the windows’ when releasing a feature film in 2025 is a more complicated endeavor that comes with a multitude of options. Although the challenges facing small European film ecosystems in the new platform ecology are certainly increasing, we also identify new possibilities and drivers of change. The commissioning of local language productions by global tech companies for instance offer circulation options in the home entertainment market for certain types of European cinema that far exceed the reach of locally produced films in the theatrical market. Local films on platforms with a global reach can thus challenge the very notion of what European film culture is and how European film can position itself both within and outside its borders.
Note that the report links to individual films in the publicly available Lumiere and Lumiere VOD databases that only include admissions in and availability in Europe. As calculations on overall admissions and markets reached are based on the subscription-based service Lumiere Pro which includes several markets outside of Europe there may be discrepancies between our figures and Lumiere’s.
Different Films, Different Distribution Challenges
Although the orientations model is developed on an ecosystem-basis, many individual films adhere to a specific avenue. To guide the reader from abstract model to concrete examples, the following will describe individual films that align well with a specific avenue. The section will conclude with ‘hybrid’ examples of films that can be said to combine different avenues.
A film that aligns well with the cultural resonance-orientation is the Danish feature film Bamse (A Lucky Man, 2022, DK). A Lucky Man is a bio-pic about a stout Danish musician named Flemming “Bamse” Jørgensen (1947 - 2011) who performed/wrote a number of Danish pop evergreens. As the lead singer and main songwriter in the band ‘Bamses venner’ (literally Bamse’s friends), Bamse is a household name in his native country but little-known outside of it. The story of Bamse’s life is also the story of Denmark in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s in particular. It is told with his many evergreens as musical accompaniment. The director, Henrik Ruben Genz, who co-wrote the screenplay with Bo Hr. Hansen, is a well-established film and TV drama director with experience working across various genres and with existing IP. The film was produced by production company Nimbus Film, which has a well-established track record in Danish film and TV production, co-produced by Uppercut Media and Ja Film (the latter based in Bamse’s native city of Aarhus). The film was financed by the Danish Film Institute’s market scheme – a testament to its potential for broad audience appeal beyond the average Danish feature film. Also indicative of its broad appeal is the co-financing supplied by the state-owned broadcaster TV 2 and both of the country’s two regional film boards. It was distributed by the domestic market leader, Nordisk Film Distribution, and had close to half a million domestic admissions making it the best-attended domestic film in 2022, the third-best attended film overall after Top Gun: Maverick (US, 2022) and Avatar: The Way of Water (US, 2022). A Lucky Man had no admissions outside of its home market (Lumiere Pro). As of July 2024, it has circulated in 22 VOD catalogs but only across the four Scandinavian countries (Lumiere VOD). In terms of critical recognition, its festival nominations and awards were similarly Danish-oriented, e.g. Robert and Bodil awards and nominations. Despite the lack of any international markets or admissions, Bamse was clearly successful in reaching domestic audiences.
The legitimacy as regards cultural resonance-orientation is not just based on successfully producing films that are popular with domestic audiences, but about producing films that connect with wide audiences on the basis of cultural proximity and specificity. Sometimes this involves adapting well-established culturally anchored IP such as well-known local novels, as can be seen in examples such as Estonian Seltsimees laps (EE, 2018), Croatian Dnevnik Pauline P. (HR, 2023) or Lithuanian Pietinia Kronikas (LT, 2024).
Films with a cinematic arts-orientation create their legitimacy on the basis of festival recognition and critical accolades. A film that aligns well with the cinematic art avenue is Sigurno mjesto (Safe Place, 2022, HR/SI). Sigurno mjesto is a drama about the abruptly suicidal Damir whose brother Bruno (played by writer-director Juraj Lerotić) and mother try desperately try to protect Damir from himself. In their search for a “safe place” - both psychologically, emotionally and physically - they find little support from an unempathetic system of distrustful police officers and condescending medical staff. Ultimately, they fail to prevent Damir from committing suicide. The film is autobiographical in the sense of being based on Lerotić’s experiences with his own brother’s suicide and in the sense that Lerotić taking on a role similar to the one he had in real life. Lerotić is not a professionally trained actor. Sigurno mjesto challenges viewers on the basis of its thematic orientation as well as its manner of storytelling and stylistic choices. The cause of Damir’s suicidal proclivity is never clarified, and the film generally positions the viewer in a non-omniscient position (Wilson 1986). Our curtailed access to character psychology is complemented by a number of cinematographic principles that obstruct the visual access to the main characters (distant framings, intervening objects, shooting through windows etc). Sigurno mjesto aligns itself with the traditions of art-cinema narration (Bordwell 1985) by highlighting the indeterminacy of personal psychology and opting for an aesthetic design that emphasizes temporal and spatial verisimilitude. Temporally, the film limits its action to 24 hours. It is a long-take, slow-paced film that features the ebb and flow vagaries of “real life” shifting between trivial moments and extremely distressful actions. The film has no traditional musical score but relies primarily on ambient sound design and dialogue. Spatially, the film is shot on location in in Zagreb and Split as opposed to being shot on a stage. The film has received considerable critical recognition at a large number of festivals both domestically and internationally, including three major awards of the Locarno Film Festival 2022. Outside of its extensive presence in the international festival circuit, Sigurno mjesto has also received a theatrical release in a number of markets outside of Croatia: six according to Lumiere Pro. As of July 2024, it has circulated in 12 VOD catalogs across a total of 12 countries (Lumiere VOD). However, its modest theatrical admissions both domestically (app. 11.000) and internationally (app. 5.000) suggest that it speaks to a niche viewership base across these markets.
Sigurno mjesto thus also exemplifies the two-fold challenge of the cinematic arts-oriented film. The domestic audience for cinematic arts-oriented films in small nations will typically be a niche audience. A well-established distributor of arthouse films from the Balkan region interviewed for this report described the efforts to promote local arthouse films in this fashion:
This white tablecloth is our potential audience. These are the people who actually love arthouse movies [our interviewee puts a glass upside down on the tablecloth]. What we do in Croatia is that we want to persuade the rest of this cloth, that doesn’t care about arthouse movies, that we actually have a good arthouse movie, that they don’t really give a s*** about, that has been on a very good festival that they really don’t give a s*** about. And we try to expand that and invest a lot of money so in the end we get this [our interviewee then puts a second glass upside down on the tablecloth next to the former glass]. With a lot, a lot of effort, and a lot, a lot of money.
Domestic audiences – even provided the significant promotional efforts our interviewee refers to – thus essentially remain a niche audience. Reaching international festivals and international distributors provides a second key distribution challenge. International distribution deals are in most cases more important for these films economically than the actual admissions in these markets, as these generally do not contribute significantly beyond the initial sale of rights (Finney 2014). Sigurno mjesto exemplifies how international festival success does not necessarily translate to international admissions, but the films of well-established directors will generally reach many markets and have a substantially bigger audience internationally than domestically. We see this with both well-established arthouse directors such as Miguel Gomes and Pedro Costa but also with debut films such as Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic’s Murina (HR/BR/US/SI 2021) that premiered in 2021 in The Directors’ Fortnight program in Cannes. It also won the Camera d’Or and went on to premiere in 18 international markets. France was Murina’s top market, accounting for over half of its 82,000 admissions. While widely distributed, most markets had fewer than 1,000 admissions. As of January 2025, it was available in 41 VOD catalogs across nine countries, mainly on TVOD, with its only major SVOD presence on French Amazon Prime. It also appeared in library services in Denmark and Sweden and specialist platforms like Mubi in Italy and BFI Player in the UK.
International markets are also key for films with an export-orientation but these films are aimed at wider audiences. The revenue generated by admissions are key and not merely the initial sale of rights. Export-oriented films can also be singled out individually with Irish films providing most of the examples but also with examples from Flanders and Denmark. Family-oriented animation films are good examples of export-oriented films. Examples include Robinson Crusoe (BE/FR/US, 2016), The Queen’s Corgi (BL/US, 2019), Bigfoot Family (BL/FR, 2020), Song of the Sea (IE/LU/BE/FR/DK, 2014) and Drømmebyggerne (DK, 2020). These films had between1 and 6% of their admissions in the domestic market, which clearly suggests that they were mainly produced with international markets in mind. Bigfoot Family for instance – a sequel to The Son of Bigfoot (BE/FR, 2017) – is a good example of an export-oriented film. As we will see later, there are a number of different characteristics tied to export-oriented films. Bigfoot Family is one of the export-oriented films that bases its action in a specific non-domestic culture, in this case the US. Although the action has certain fantastic elements, the action does take place in identifiable locations such as Portland and Alaska.
There are of course also examples of hybrid films that have ambitions or success that cuts across the described orientations. Examples of such films could be the Irish An Cailín Ciúin (IE, 2022) and the Flemish Close (BE/FR/NL, 2022). Both films can be understood as cultural resonance-oriented films. An Cailín Ciúin is an Irish language film set in rural Ireland in 1981 based on Claire Keegan’s critically renowned novella Foster (2009). Close follows the relationship of two boys from a French speaking community that attend a Dutch speaking school, situating its themes of bonding, gender and sexuality within the specific context of Walloon-Flemish cultural-linguistic tensions. An Cailín Ciúin was the most popular Irish film in Irish cinemas in 2022, as well as the fifth most popular Irish film since 2014, and Close was the second most popular film in Belgium in 2022. However, the two films also had traits associated with cinematic arts-orientation and even export-orientation: Both films had their initial premiere at top three festivals where they also won awards. An Cailín Ciúin won the Crystal Bear in Berlin and Close won the Grand Prix in Cannes. They each went on to a string of other festivals for most of 2022, and both were nominated for best international feature at the 2023 Academy Awards. Both films also achieved considerable international success. As of April 2025, An Cailín Ciúin had 1.1M admissions across 32 markets and Close had 1.5M admissions across 43 markets. While the domestic market was the most important single market for both films, most of their admissions came from international markets with France being the biggest market. Both films also saw a string of international premieres in the months following the 2023 Academy Awards.
Reaching Domestic Audiences
One orientation of small film industries is what we refer to as “cultural resonance”. A cultural resonance-ecosystem is tuned to the promotion of films that connect with domestic audiences in the way they resonate with the beliefs, values, or shared understandings within the domestic culture, attempting to make films that appear familiar, important, or meaningful within the specific context of their cultural background. Films from small ecosystems are generally not competitive with Hollywood productions or even films from large European markets in terms of economic and technological resources. They are competitive, however, when it comes to the cultural-historical proximity with its audience. In many ways, cultural resonance-oriented films thus cater to one of the few advantages that local films have in a highly competitive landscape. Outside of a commercially framed competition for audiences and viewers, cultural resonance is also politically tied to films serving culturally desirable functions. Thus, cultural resonance is usually established in the form of cultural policy goals. These can occasionally drive films that aim to generate culturally specific debate or awareness but unlike the cinematic art-orientation we will address later, this impact is oriented towards a specifically local context rather than international festival recognition or critical accolades. In other words, success for films within the cultural resonance-orientation is often defined by its domestic reception, particularly domestic admissions as this indicates that the films resonate with the audiences they were addressing.
Key issue: dependence on local infrastructure
Regardless of their funding or whether they aim for a large domestic audience or have a more debate-oriented agenda, cultural resonance films are strongly reliant on national infrastructure. Films oriented towards larger domestic audiences are heavily dependent on local cinemas and distributors whereas films that (also) seek to establish specific cultural debates rely on local media, local community-initiatives and other outlets to create a national discourse around the films.
An initial challenge is to what extent there is a cinema and VOD infrastructure that makes it feasible for local films to reach substantial domestic audiences. For instance, we see that low cinema attendance and low VOD penetration themselves are obstacles in some markets. A lack of cinemas outside of the urban areas might pose an additional challenge for cultural resonance-oriented films since we find evidence in some markets that domestic films are more popular in rural than urban areas. Our local industry stakeholders also report on earlier attempts to boost the local cinemas for that same reason. A Lithuanian regional cinema network was in fact delineated in a research report initiated by Kestutis Drazdauskas approximately ten years ago to rectify the cinema infrastructure of the country which Drazdauskas still describes as both lacking in terms of total available screens and also lacking in cinemas tuned to the programming of Lithuanian cinema:
In Lithuania we have an issue of limitations of available screens. You make a film in Lithuanian, you will be fighting against Hollywood productions, against other countries’ productions on the same premises. (…) You just don’t have a wide enough pipe. (…) The cinema infrastructure in Lithuania is run privately. It’s mostly multiplexes. They have their owners outside of Lithuania and they are programmed to cater to Hollywood masters essentially. I brought up this issue that we are financing - publicly – Lithuanian films but we don’t have the right tools to actually show them to the audiences because most of the screens are concentrated in the biggest cities and although we have like 50 municipalities in Lithuania, only around ten, I think, were showing films on a regular basis. We did a lot of economic calculations. Essentially, the idea was that if we had a cinema which would be partially financed through the public sector, in every town that has about 20.000 inhabitants you could pretty much keep it afloat and have them screen Lithuanian films and European films on a regular basis.
Since just about every town had a cultural center or more, the initial idea was to set up a cinema hall with daily film screenings in these cultural centers, but the initiative stumbled across various technical, economic and political hurdles that prevented it from being implemented. Thus, the problems persist to this day.
As the Lithuanian example suggests, the ownership mix underlying the cinema infrastructure likely plays an important role. We do not yet have a comparative ownership mix for all CresCine markets. This calls for further research but in a period where large transnational cinema chains are facing increased pressure even in their largest markets, it is not unreasonable to assume that increasing admissions for domestic titles in small markets is not a top priority. And as such, cinemas that are more closely connected to the local industries — for example locally vertically integrated companies — are likely to have a stronger commitment to such films.
Looking across the CresCine markets, we also find much variation in what kinds of companies make up the distribution sector — and while there is still little research on the role of European distributors in their domestic markets, we believe these differences are significant. Cinematic distribution is, to a larger extent than production and exhibition, a zero-sum game. New entrants in the market will in most cases have to compete with the established players for a limited number of titles to acquire on one hand and for a limited amount of quality screenings on the other. This gives the larger players a competitive advantage as they can exert more influence over producers and cinemas.
However, it is also important to consider that being a sub-distributor of licensed titles that are also being released and marketed in other territories is significantly different from being a first-run distributor that is responsible for releasing and marketing a title in its initial home market. Not only does the latter in most cases involve higher risk and higher investments — and not always with a higher reward — it also requires developing release and marketing strategies rather than adapting them.
Given these two factors, we can assume that for any domestic film with broad market ambitions, it would be ideal to be released by a distributor that has a significant share of the total domestic market, and at the same time is committed to and experienced in releasing local titles. Looking across the CresCine markets, we find that these kinds of distributors are rare. The strongest examples are found in Denmark and Flanders, markets with high domestic market shares and high awareness of local titles among the public.
That said, distributors with strong commitment to domestic films and a significant share of the overall markets cannot exist if there are few or no domestic films that reach broad local audiences for these distributors to release. We also find several examples, notably in Lithuania, where most of the top performing domestic titles from 2014 to 2022 have been self-distributed by the production company. As such the impact of domestic distributors is difficult to evaluate.
Key issue: building and maintaining audience habits for domestic films
One of the key features of cultural resonance is establishing a bond with a sizable domestic audience. This is no easy feat, and we can see that in e.g. Croatia, Portugal and Ireland there are disconnections between local films and local audiences that have strong historical roots that are difficult to remedy. A Croatian film producer interviewed for this report stated that it would have been easier to get Croatian audiences to see his most recent film if they had believed that it was Serbian, a reference to the fact that specific Serbian films have reached higher admissions in Croatia than any domestic film. Looking at the highest-ranking domestic films in national cinemas we see that in Denmark, Lithuania, and Estonian domestic films regularly capture the top spot, and are rarely or never outside of the top ten. On the other hand, we see Croatian, Irish and Portuguese films struggling to reach the top ten or even top 20. Interestingly, a Croatian distributor-producer interviewed for this report believed that the cinema infrastructure in Croatia was actually quite perfect for cultural resonance-oriented films. The interviewee did not endorse tweaking the cinema infrastructure to be more accommodating to Croatian cinematic arts-oriented films but instead endorsed producing a higher number of cultural resonance-oriented films such as Dnevnik Pauline P. (HR, 2023) or Drazen (HR, 2024).
Note that the numbers for Belgium include both Flanders and Wallonia. As all the domestic films to reach the top ten in the period were Flemish, it is likely that they would have ranked higher if only admission from Flemish cinemas had been included.
While most markets have various forms of audience building schemes, this issue also reaches into the financing of potentially popular domestic films. There is a limit to how popular films with a clear cinematic arts-orientation, often described as difficult films, can become even if they address questions and themes that are culturally resonant. To build habits of going to cinemas to watch domestic films among wider audiences it is therefore also a requirement that there is a regular production of domestic films with broad audience potential. In terms of financing, however, these films often find themselves in a challenging middle position. While these films serve audience needs in a different way than the high-budget international fare, they are still to some extent competing for the same broad audiences. On one hand, these films therefore require higher production values and investments compared to films with a narrower audience ambition. On the other hand, public bodies are often reluctant to support films perceived as overly “commercial”.
All industries, including those that have strong connections to the local cinema-going audiences, also face the challenge that cinema audiences are becoming increasingly older. While this is in part a result of an increase in cinema attendance among older age cohorts it is also the result of a decrease in the number of cinema visits by younger audiences that have adopted new internet based habits – a pattern that is also visible in some of our markets such as the Danish one. With a low production output, it is extremely difficult to establish cinema-going practices amongst children and teenage audiences for local films. A distributor interviewed for this report adds that this requires other initiatives such as audience-development strategies in the education sector.
Drivers of Change: Potential Market — But at High Costs — for Small Industries
For industries that struggle to achieve success with films oriented towards cultural resonance, we therefore believe the main challenge is to establish a coherent local infrastructure, that involves funding bodies, producers, distributors, and exhibitors, and that supports both funding and marketing of popular local movies.
However, this is a very costly undertaking — especially with films oriented towards the general public — as it requires not only significant investments in infrastructure, but also a relatively high volume of relatively expensive films to be successful. While there is evidence that audiences are willing to accept lower production values from domestic films than comparable international films — there is certainly a limit to how popular the very low-budget films can become. On the other hand, a high production volume is required to achieve more stable admissions for local films, a key requirement for the infrastructure, but is also necessary to improve audience awareness of local films in general. Despite this we see indications from Portugal and Croatia that individual films that are oriented towards larger local audiences such as the Portuguese comedies Curral de Moinas - Os Banqueiros do Povo (PT, 2022) and O Pátio das Cantigas (PT, 2015) or the Croatian children and youth movies Dnevnik Pauline P. (HR, 2023) and Cvrcak i mravica (HR, 2023) can break the domestic top ten despite a low overall domestic market share. The Lithuanian domestic success is also largely a result of relatively low budget comedies that are financed through the tax incentive scheme and not films that have received production funding from the Lithuanian film board.
There is also a considerable upside for films produced with a cultural resonance-orientation. They face a far less competitive marketplace than either of the export or the cinematic arts-oriented films, as they are likely to face limited competition from films produced outside their cultural sphere. Outside the big five very few, if any, European markets produce too many films aimed at local audiences. The fact that the CresCine markets with the lowest domestic market shares, Ireland, Portugal and Croatia, are the only markets where films from a neighboring country have higher average admissions than domestic titles, indicate that there is an audience demand for productions with a cultural resonance here as well. This is perhaps most evident in Croatia where there have been as many Serbian as Croatian films in the top 10 since 2014. While this is likely less true for markets that share language or cultural proximity with strong neighbors, such as Ireland - we still see that British films have a higher share of admissions in Ireland than in the rest of the CresCine markets.
These films are also more likely to increase the general cinema admissions, as they appear to serve an audience need that films from other markets do not address. Admissions in markets with stronger domestic market shares have also proven to be more resilient in periods of international instability as we have seen when Covid-19, strikes and other strategic reorganization have affected the output from Hollywood. For instance, while Irish theatrical admissions per capita was well above the CresCine average from 2015 to 2019, it fell sharply during 2020 and 2021, while the Danish and Estonian admissions remained relatively stable.
Reaching Festivals and International Markets
This section focuses on the challenges in trying to reach festivals and international markets, which is the primary challenge for films with a cinematic arts-orientation. As previously discussed, reaching festivals and international distribution deals is key for these films both as a pathway to artistic recognition as well as for economic reasons.
Key issue: high levels of competition in all areas
Of the three orientations described in this report, the cinematic arts-oriented titles from small markets face the highest levels of competition. There are several reasons for this. First, unlike the cultural resonance-oriented films they lack the protection that addressing a small market offers. Second, there is a very high volume of cinematic arts-oriented films from all over the world that compete for the same audiences, the same distributors, and the same festivals. Third, even if they are not competing for the same cinema audiences as the more popular domestic or international films, they are still competing with titles with vastly higher marketing and production budgets for screens and attention. Fourth, in the festivals that are key for cinematic arts-oriented films they often face direct competition for inclusion in the program and attention from Hollywood-films and other bigger budget films that might have artistic as well as commercial ambitions. The most striking recent example being Joker (US, 2019) winning the Golden Lion at the Venice film festival before going on to grossing over one billion USD.
Key issue: getting into festivals
While artistic recognition should not be reduced to nominations and participation in festivals, they are key to unlocking audience awareness as well as markets for films with a cinematic arts-orientation. While there are many differing criteria for selecting festivals to examine, we have opted to base our selection on the Swedish Film Institute’s list of festivals and awards that are a part of their “quality index” calculation. The festivals considered in this section are Annecy, Busan, Berlin, Cannes, International Documentary Film Festival Amsterdam (IDFA), Karlovy Vary, Locarno, Rotterdam, San Sebastián, Sundance, Telluride, Toronto, Tribeca, and Venice. The SFI quality index also considers the London Film Festival, Cinekids, and CPH:DOX, but we were unable to collect data on participation and awards from the London Film Festival and Cinekids for the whole time period. CPH:DOX was excluded to avoid having a festival based in one of the seven CresCine markets due to possible skewing of the results. Recognized festivals such as Black Nights Film Festival in Estonia and Zagreb Film Festival in Croatia are not included in the SFIs index but including them could – similarly to CPH:DOX - lead to skewed results. Only features with 2014 to 2022 as year of production and a theatrical release in Europe are considered.
Looking across all European films and US films released in Europe we see that most films were not included in the selected festivals. While this includes films that were never submitted nor had any ambition of participating in these festivals, the differences between the industries cannot be fully explained by the industry orientation. As we saw in the previous section, Estonia and Denmark are among the industries with strong domestic market shares – but we find they have a very different share of titles at these festivals. Similarly, we find significant differences among Croatia, Ireland and Portugal, the CresCine markets with low domestic market shares.
Some explanation, in particular for the high share of Danish films at festivals, can be found in the kinds of films that are being produced. A significant share of the Danish films that are selected for festivals are documentaries, and Danish films were selected almost twice as often to the documentary festival IDFA as all the other CresCine markets combined. Lithuania is the only other market where documentaries were more often selected for festivals than fiction films. When only fiction films are considered, the Irish share of films selected for festivals is considerably higher than the others.
The different levels of access to festivals in general can also in part be attributed to peripherality. As documented by CresCine research, films from small markets struggle to gain access at the major festivals. Looking at the numbers of films at the various festivals we also find regional patterns. This is most striking when comparing Irish and Portuguese films, where Irish films are far more often selected for North American festivals and awards and Portuguese films have significantly higher presence at the European festivals. Karlovy Vary, the only examined festival in the Eastern part of Europe, was the only festival where Estonian and Lithuanian films had a similar number of nominations as the rest of the CresCine markets, though no Portuguese films were selected here.
Key issue: getting access to markets
Festivals are not only key to artistic recognition, but they are also key in securing distribution deals for additional markets. As many titles are selected for several festivals, we have chosen to focus on the first run festivals when examining the correlation between average markets reached and festivals. Using this metric, we find that films premiering at all the selected festivals with the exception of IDFA and Rotterdam circulated in more markets than those that did not. The low number of markets for IDFA is largely explained by the low circulation of documentaries in general. Compared to documentaries that did not participate in any of the examined festivals, IDFA selected documentaries circulated slightly more.
There is, however, a significant difference in the average number of markets reached by films selected for the different festivals. Cannes leads, followed by Telluride and then the rest of the “Big Five”, Venice, Toronto, Sundance and the Berlinale. The strong performance of Telluride is likely due to only selecting 25 titles on average, of which an average of 11 were US first-produced titles. Looking at the number of markets reached by films from the different ecosystems we still find that the festival effect remains significant, but that it is also constrained by the industry origins. As an example, the eight Portuguese fiction films selected for Berlinale averaged 3.13 markets, about twice the average of 1.61 for fiction films not in the selected festivals. The ten Danish films selected for the Berlinale reached 7.8 markets on average, which is also almost twice the 4.18 markets reached by films not in selected festivals. Looking at the median values rather than averages we find a similar pattern.
Examining the average markets reached based on the premiere festival and first-producing country we also find that there can be significant variations between the number of markets reached. These can often be attributed to one or two titles that have reached a large number of markets. On the strength of Sangailes vasara (LT/FR/NL, 2015) and Vesper (LT/FR/BE, 2022) that reached 15 and 14 markets respectively, Lithuanian films premiering at Karlovy Vary averaged 6.8 markets. Estonian films at Karlovy Vary, however, only reached 1.4 markets on average, which is the same as films that did not premiere at any of the selected festivals.
When comparing the number of titles released in various regions based on participation in the selected festivals, it is evident that the festivals in general have a positive effect across all regions. The effect is, however, the strongest in Europe, followed by the Americas. This included the North American festivals in the selection, although their effect is relatively stronger in the North American markets than the European festivals. Again, this varies strongly according to festival and market as can be explored in the visualization below.
Co-producing partners in the market regions also have a positive effect on the share of titles that reach markets in Europe and the Americas, and for these markets the local co-producer effect is generally stronger than festival participation. Although the overlap between festival participation and co-producers has not been examined, in general co-produced films have about the same level of festival participation as 100% national productions across the markets.
Drivers of change: talent and strong industries
This analysis indicates that festival participation and local co-producers have an effect on the markets any given film reaches. These effects are, however, limited compared to the impact of the originating industries. While the next section will show that reaching international audiences is a bigger challenge for small industries than reaching international markets, there is unsurprisingly a strong correlation between the industries that regularly reach a high number of international markets and those with strong exports.
That said, comparing the effects of festival participation, co-producing and originating industries risks underestimating the impact of individual films and talent. Excluding animation, which will be discussed in the next section, only three Flemish films from the period reached more than 15 markets. Of these three, two were directed by Lukas Dhont whose films Close and Girl reached 43 and 37 markets respectively. Using nominations and awards as an indication of the impact of individual talents we find that across the examined festivals and awards a total of 5717 directors received at least one nomination or award. Out of these, 18.7% received half of all nominations and awards, and only 4.6% were needed to reach 25% of all nominations and awards. Lukas Dhont won approximately one third of all nominations and awards for Flemish films in the period. While this stands out in the CresCine markets, most industries saw a single director receive at least 15% of all nominations and awards.
For small markets that can draw on a smaller talent pool, these generational talents are few and far between, and even with the best policy imaginable, success can be difficult to achieve. In many cases, these generational talents also produce their films abroad. One example is the Danish-Iranian director Ali Abassi who has been selected at Cannes with three different films that each have different first-producing countries. For most small markets, this is a significant challenge, but some industries, such as the Irish, have also found much of their festival success with foreign born directors such as the Greek Yorgos Lanthimos. Finding, nurturing, developing, attracting and keeping talent therefore becomes a crucial challenge.
Reaching International Audiences
Given that CresCine markets are generally considered too small to sustain a commercially viable film industry based on local audiences alone, an option strikingly different from cultural resonance and cinematic arts is to produce films that cater to broad international audiences. In this case the legitimacy can be defined as international success and the success criteria understood as non-national admissions, reaching export markets, VOD catalog circulation, international consumption metrics or commercial profits originating from export markets/international audiences.
Key issue: exporting any film theatrically
The Small European Film Markets-report (Nielsen et al. 2024) contains a number of key findings as concerns export. Looking at the theatrical market for the years 2014-2022 (both fiction and documentaries), there is a relatively clear split between CresCine industries that actually export films and CresCine industries that do not. Portuguese, Lithuanian, Estonian and Croatian films share a common challenge of generating non-national admissions at all. They have an average of 0.11M, 0.05M, 0.04M and 0.03M across the 2014-2022 time span (see graph below). Ireland, Flanders and Denmark on the other hand have average yearly non-national admissions of approximately 2.4M, 2.1M and 1.6M respectively.
Interestingly, the discrepancies are less pronounced in terms of share of produced films that have an international release (see second slide in visual above). In other words, the challenge of getting substantial international admissions is much more pronounced than the challenge of getting some sort of theatrical release in international markets.
Key issue: export pathways
Given that Ireland, Flanders, and Denmark stand out in terms of export, the following will emphasize these particular cases to get a clearer sense of what characterizes and drives export of films from these ecosystems. The pattern of Ireland, Flanders and Denmark standing out as exporting films not only stands out when looking at admissions. It also emerges when looking at the average export markets reached year-by-year on a per-title basis as well as per total repertoire (see below). The graphs below include both fiction and documentary features. Documentary films generally have modest international admissions.
The two calculations above tell us a few interesting facts. For the period of 2014-2022, the individual Irish film more consistently reached international markets (although only slightly above DK). However, the total repertoire of Danish and Flemish films actually reach more markets than the repertoire of Irish films does. In other words, the average Irish film reaches more international markets than the equivalent from Flanders and Denmark whereas the total repertoire of Irish films reach a narrower range of markets compared to the total repertoire of films from Flanders and Denmark.
The most likely explanation here is that Irish films more consistently reach a stronger nucleus of export markets. This is particularly true of English language markets (e.g. GB, CAN, UK, AU, NZ) but Irish films also more consistently reach a few markets outside Europe such as Mexico and South Korea. Out of the 177 Irish films (including both fiction and documentary features) in our 2014-2022 sample, key export markets include GB (approximately 130 films had a release in GB), New Zealand (36 films), Australia (28 films), US (28 films) and Canada (14 films). Although the total film output in Denmark was almost twice as high, out of the 326 films produced in 2014-2022-period, the number of films reaching these markets were generally lower, e.g. GB (38 films), US (24 films), Canada (17 films), Australia (18 films), New Zealand (14 films).
A further description of which markets films from the CresCine industries find international audiences and the role of co-productions in relation to this can be found in the Small European Industries report.
Three forms of export orientation
When comparing the export orientation of Ireland, Flanders, and Denmark, we see three different forms of export orientation. The following is deliberately simplified but the export-orientation aligns relatively well with each ecosystem.
Export as a baseline. Ireland has a long history of producing films for export markets. The essential difference from Denmark and Flanders is that export has developed into what can be called the baseline of an industry with strong international ties. Section 481 has been a strong motor in this regard and has been important in terms of attracting international productions to the country. Ireland also has a high number of co-productions with international partners, and a high number of Irish films are distributed by internationally based distributors.
Export as a selective strategy. Numerically, there are very few films from Flanders with significant admissions internationally and whose export admissions supersede its domestic admissions. However, those few films stand out quite clearly in the overall repertoire of feature film production in Flanders. The clearest outlier is family-oriented animation films. The three nWave animation films (Robinson Crusoe, 2016; The Queen’s Corgi, 2019; Bigfoot Family, 2020) stand out for their exceptionally high number of international admissions. In fact, these three films are all in the top 5 of the 50 best exporting films in all CresCine markets. The Queen’s Corgi had approximately. 247.000 admissions in Belgium, whereas Robinson Crusoe and Bigfoot Family had approximately. 110.000 and 126.000 admissions domestically. They had some domestic success, but none are in the top 50 CresCine films in terms of domestic admissions, and they all clearly have the international market as their key focus. Ben Stassen of nWave has also, in various interviews, declared the international market as their key audience.
Export as a byproduct. As can be seen from the graphs above, the average Danish film reaches a high number of international markets, and the average non-national admissions are also significant, though not as high as in Ireland and Flanders. Some of the export orientation found in Ireland and Flanders can also be located in Denmark. For instance, the English-language films of von Trier and Winding Refn essentially have the international audience as their baseline, and the strategic orientation towards export is also visible in Denmark but primarily within the field of minority co-productions – in particular the field of animation – but these films are then not registered as Danish films. Nonetheless, the export orientation of films from Denmark also stands out. No Danish film has the 6-7 million international admissions of Robinson Crusoe and The Queen’s Corgi, but there is a more significant number of Danish films that reach international audiences. Only ten films from Flanders reached 100.000 non-national admissions whereas in Denmark, 25 films reached 100.000 non-national admissions in the 2014-2022-period. Ten of these 25 films had more admissions domestically, and 17 of the films had more than 100.000 admissions domestically. Consequently, the export-orientation of films from Denmark appears to stand out for going hand in hand with or even piggybacking on the strength of the domestic market as such. Altogether, there is a stronger variety of films that reach international admissions in Denmark than in Flanders and as opposed to Ireland, the domestic market is simultaneously a significant market for the lion’s share of these exporting films.
Drivers of change: lessons learned from top-performing films
A more exclusive focus on the top-performing films from these ecosystems in international markets provides more detail. While there is no guarantee that previous success is also the avenue of future success, a more exclusive focus on the top-performing films can at least serve as an example of what helped drive international distribution in the recent past. The following contains an analysis of the top-performing films in terms of international admissions, circulation on VOD (catalogs and countries), and performance in the Netflix catalog (hours viewed, presence in Top 10 lists for specific markets). It is important to state at the outset that there is an overlap yet also significant differences when it comes to international success of CresCine titles theatrically and in the VOD field.
Considering the overall export admissions presented above, it is not surprising that among the top 50 exporting films in all CresCine markets (2014-2022) there is a strong representation of films from Ireland, Flanders and Denmark. In fact, except for one Portuguese and one Croatian film, all top 50 exporting films (measured in total international admissions) are from these three eco systems (“Top-performing films,” 2024). Looking more closely at the top 50 exporting films from all CresCine ecosystems as well as the genre signatures of the top 20 exporting films from each of the seven CresCine ecosystems, a number of characteristics can be identified:
• Family-oriented animation films stand out. Although animation films do well domestically, their success in international markets is even more pronounced. Sixteen of the top 50 international titles from CresCine markets are animated, with five of the top 10 in international admissions being animation films. This is largely due to productions from Belgium’s nWave Pictures (e.g. Robinson Crusoe, The Queen’s Corgi), Ireland’s Cartoon Saloon (e.g. Song of the Sea, WolfWalkers), and different Danish studios. Combined, the top five animation films have nearly 19 million admissions, rising to 22.5 million when accounting for all animated films in the top 50. Including Belgium in the sample (not just Flanders) would have further boosted these numbers. The international success of animation is not new. Earlier examples include Haunted Castle (BE/US 2001), Hjælp, jeg er en fisk (DK/DE/IE 2000), and The Ugly Duckling and Me! (DK/DE/FR/IE, 2006). However, a turning point came in 2008 with nWave’s Fly Me to the Moon, followed by many international hits. These films often rely on globally recognized cultural references, like H.C. Andersen’s The Ugly Duckling or Daniel Defoe’s Robinson Crusoe, as a stepping stone to broader international appeal.
• International co-productions, especially for Ireland and Flanders, drive export. Collaborative partners from larger markets suggest that these help to establish gateways to international markets both within and outside of Europe (see Film Export: Comparing CresCine & Large Markets). This of course also includes markets that are not directly involved in the production. For instance, nWave animation films have reached substantial audiences in China although our Lumiere Pro data does not indicate an official Chinese co-production partner. Co-productions also dominate the top international films more broadly speaking.
• International language-films. Language plays a key role too, with English-language or dubbed animation films performing best internationally. Non-anglophone international languages also play a role. For instance, Dutch-language K3 films, for example, succeeded in the Netherlands, while films like Girl (BE/NL 2017) and Close (BE/FR/NL 2022) found international audiences in neighboring geo-linguistic regions. These cultural export patterns align with the cultural-linguistic proximity theory whereby cultural products are more likely to travel to markets with high geo-linguistic proximity (de Sola Pool 1977; Straubhaar 1991, 2007). However, it is worth noting that geo-linguistic proximity is not in itself a gateway to export. Sweden is not a significant export market for Danish films and neither is Brazil for Portuguese films. Fatima (PT/US, 2020) had approximately 63.000 admissions in Brazil but Portuguese-language films rarely find a commercial release in Brazil and generally do not reach substantial audiences there.
• Internationally recognized auteurs are well-represented on the list (e.g. Neil Jordan, Lars von Trier, Jim Sheridan, Thomas Vinterberg, Yorgos Lanthimos, Nicolas Winding Refn, Tomm Moore and Lukas Dhont). Overall, the export characteristics of auteur-driven export films follow two main paths. On the one hand, there are English-language films involving international co-production partners that are clearly designed with an international audience in mind. The films of Yorgos Lanthimos, Lars von Trier and Nicolas Winding Refn best exemplify this export-orientation in our 2014-2022-sample where both The Lobster (IE/FR/GB/NL/GR, 2015), The House that Jack Built (DK/FR/SE, 2018) and The Neon Demon (DK/US/FR, 2016) had very modest admissions domestically (approximately 25.000, 30.000 and 9.000 respectively) but substantially stronger admissions numbers internationally (approximately 2.056.000, 517.000, 736.000 respectively). On the other hand, there are local-language auteur films that actually do reach significant domestic audiences while also achieving significant international admissions. The films of Lucas Dhont and Thomas Vinterberg best exemplify this path. Girl (2018) and Close (2022) – both directed by Lucas Dhont - had domestic admission in the 300-350.000 range and were thus relatively solid successes at home. Thomas Vinterberg’s Druk had approximately 843.000 admissions domestically and was a box office hit. In terms of international admissions, Girl had approximately 700.000, Close 1.149.000 and Druk 2.779.000 international admissions. Although Druk was a substantially bigger hit altogether, all three films have a relatively similar split between domestic and international admissions. It would appear then that the international success of these latter films partially relies on the strength of their domestic performance - combined with very strong critical recognition, including many nominations and awards at international festivals.
• Internationally recognized actors star in a number of the live-action films on the list (e.g. Brie Larson, Isabelle Huppert, Colin Farrell, Rachel Weisz, Sally Hawkins, Ethan Hawke, Brendan Gleeson, Matt Dillon, and Mads Mikkelsen).
• Transnational characteristics. The stronger share of co-productions amid films that perform well in international markets aligns with strongly transnational characteristics of these productions more broadly speaking. This concerns the composition of cast and crew, setting, languages spoken, as well as the specific themes and storylines of the films themselves. An example is Greta (IE/US 2018), directed by Irish Neil Jordan but set in New York City and starring French Isabelle Huppert and American Chloë Grace Moretz.
• The characters, cast, settings and storylines of a fair share of these films are not strongly anchored culturally in the market in which they are produced. Some are more anchored in a specific non-domestic culture, e.g. the US as in The Salvation (DK/GB/ZA, 2014), The Neon Demon (DK/US/FR, 2016), The House that Jack Built (DK/FR/DE/SE, 2018) or the above mentioned Greta.
• Culturally unspecified. Others are more unspecified such as Room (IE/US/CA/GB 2015), or The Lobster (IE/FR/GB/NL/GR, 2015), the latter directed by Greek Yorgos Lanthimos, starring actors from various nations, and set in unspecified locations (it was shot in Ireland). This connects to the export strategy that Scott Olson has defined as “narrative transparency” (Olson 1999) – where narratives remain ‘culturally open’, allowing audiences to read their own cultural dispositions into the films.
• Certain genres tend to perform better internationally, especially adventure, sci-fi, horror, fantasy, and drama. Genre hybridity also appears to be a factor in international success as multiple genre tags are more prevalent in the top 50 exporting films compared to the overall repertoire. Comedy, on the other hand, is more popular domestically, particularly in Portugal, where genres like sci-fi and war only appear among international top-performers, while thriller and mystery dominate domestically.
Reaching Audiences and Catalogs on VOD
As revenue from sales and rentals of physical home entertainment has all but disappeared across the CresCine markets, various forms of VOD has become the most important path to non-theatrical distribution. Reaching audiences and catalogs on VOD is therefore a challenge films across all three orientations face.
The data for analyzing performance on VOD is more gappy than for theatrical performance and third-party data is unfortunately not specific enough to allow for a per title-comparison of performance. Analysis of circulation on VOD catalogs/countries and performance on Netflix indicate similarities with challenges pertaining to theatrical export, though there is some evidence that films with limited theatrical success can still find audiences on VOD. These findings align with a recent report from the European Audiovisual Observatory that finds that performance on SVOD is largely linked with theatrical performance, though again with a significant share of films that over or underperform on SVOD vis-a-vis theatrical.
Key issue: presence in catalogs
Cathrin Bengesser’s analyses of the share of CresCine titles in VOD catalogs enhance the pattern we see as regards theatrical performance internationally: close to all titles from Ireland, Denmark, and Flanders are in VOD circulation whereas that is the case for a considerably smaller share of features produced by the remaining ecosystems. Aside from the more pronounced export-orientation of these three markets, the high share of VOD circulation is likely related to the development of their domestic VOD markets as such, particularly the surge in number and share of households subscribing to VOD services (see VOD infrastructure). Since the global SVODs (Netflix, Apple+, Disney+ and Max) carry very few CresCine titles, the circulation of CresCine films relies strongly on national or regional SVOD catalogs. In terms of Netflix’s film commissioning activities, we see a similar pattern since only films from Ireland, Denmark and Belgium have – as of the release of the report – been commissioned by Netflix.
Unsurprisingly, theatrically successful films are among the top 20 list of the most widely circulating CresCine films on VOD catalogs. Unlike in cinemas, however, there appears to be alternative paths to circulation and viewership for titles on VOD. Whereas close to no local-language films have managed to reach substantial international theatrical admissions or markets without piggybacking on festival recognition, a significant number of films also reach substantial international catalogs while having modest, unsuccessful or no theatrical release.
Key issue: reaching domestic audiences
As the interests and strategies of the global streaming services have varied across territories and time — it is difficult to assess their impact and potential for local film industries. These, sometimes sudden, shifts in strategy are a challenging aspect for local film industries. That said, global streamers could in theory target local audiences with local films, bypassing the challenges described earlier regarding the need for local infrastructure and financing for more commercial domestic films. While this could provide opportunities for local producers, it could also undermine the cinema infrastructure if potentially popular local titles are not given a theatrical release. In practice, however, it seems like the investments and attention from the global streamers are limited to the markets that already have strong industries.
The national top 10 lists released weekly by Netflix provide some insights into the local popularity of domestic titles on the global platform. Looking at the number of domestic titles in the respective national top 10s, we find a relatively high number of Danish titles, followed by Irish and Flemish. These are also the only three CresCine markets where Netflix has commissioned films. With seven weeks in the Croatian top 10, Dnevnik Pauline P. (HR, 2023) equals Toscana (DK, 2020) in Denmark for the domestic CresCine title with the longest stay in the national top 10 lists.
While Irish films do comparatively well on Netflix compared to in cinemas, the Flemish and Danish numbers must also be considered low compared to the performance in cinemas. While it is difficult to compare the weekly rankings released by Netflix to the yearly admissions data provided by Lumiere, from 2020 to 2023, four Flemish and 19 Danish titles have reached the yearly top ten admissions lists in Belgium and Denmark, compared to two and twelve titles over weekly rankings from 2021 to 2024.
Still more significant is the lack of Estonian and Lithuanian films in the local top 10 lists, despite their strong performance at the domestic box office. In these cases, we cannot assume a lack of local interest, as there is only one Estonian film in the Estonian Netflix catalog and no Lithuanian films in the Lithuanian catalog in the examined periods. The inclusion of Croatian films in the Croatian Netflix catalog is also relatively recent, resulting from the introduction of an investment obligation. The fact that all Croatian titles were acquired from a single distributor could indicate that local distributors, and the lack of distributors with large domestic portfolios in Estonia and Lithuania, have an impact in getting into VOD catalogs. Looking across the CresCine markets, we find that most of the theatrically released titles in the local Netflix catalogs come from a small number of distributors.
Key issue: reaching international viewers
This section compares the performance of films from the CresCine markets and from the six large markets based on analysis of data released by the streaming service Netflix in the three Netflix Engagement Reports in the period January 2023 to June 2024. We analyze data that was released by Netflix on what people are watching, combined with data from Netflix’s top 10 lists of the most-watched TV and films. We focus on analyzing the total views (total number of hours viewed) and the average number of views per title. The data from the three Netflix Engagement Reports were aggregated and combined with other sources on films commissioned by Netflix. The focus is on films commissioned by Netflix, with licensed films excluded.
The distribution landscape for export-oriented films reveals that certain CresCine markets remain peripheral due to limited investment from global streamers like Netflix in locally produced films. According to the analysis of the three Netflix Engagement Reports, covering the period from January 2023 to June 2024, Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Portugal have a more peripheral position, as Netflix did not commission any films from these ecosystems during the specified period. Out of the seven CresCine markets, only Denmark, Flanders, and Ireland have films commissioned by the streaming platform. Another challenge is the absence of documentary films from the CresCine ecosystems commissioned by Netflix during the analysis period. This suggests that documentaries from the CresCine markets are underrepresented in Netflix’s catalog.
According to viewership data from the streaming platform, the CresCine ecosystem film with the highest number of total hours viewed is the Danish film A Beautiful Life (DK, 2023), which spent seven weeks in Netflix’s Global Top 10 for Non-English films. The Flemish psychological thriller Noise (BE/NL, 2023) also achieved high viewership in the period. It remained in the Netflix’s Global Top 10 Non-English films for two weeks and made it into the top 10 films in 68 countries. Films from the CresCine markets include sequels like the Flemish Claus Family 2 (BE, 2021) and Claus Family 3 (BE/NL, 2022), both of which were produced after the success of Claus Family (BE, 2020).
Our analysis of aggregated data shows that Danish films commissioned by Netflix had the highest total views and the highest average views per title, followed by films from Flanders and Ireland. As expected, larger markets in Europe, as demonstrated in the visual, have a greater number of views than the smaller CresCine ecosystems. During the analysis period, films from the UK had the highest total hours viewed, followed by films from Spain and France. Italian films had the lowest performance among the six large markets we analysed. French films had the strongest performance when examining the aggregated data on average views per title. Overall, Netflix commissioned the largest number of films in the UK (40) and Spain (39). Films from some CresCine ecosystems have performed strongly in Netflix’s Top 10 films. For example, Danish films reached the Top 10 lists in an average of 56 markets, the highest number compared to films from the other markets in our analysis. Danish films also showed strong results in the average number of weeks they remained in Netflix’s Global Top 10 for Non-English films.
Conclusion: Disruption for All, Opportunities for Some
Although individual films can reach massive audiences on globally oriented platforms such as Netflix, cinema remains key for legitimacy and economy across the orientations and across the CresCine industries. In some regards the transformation has reinforced the ties between domestic films and local distribution and exhibition by increasing the theatrical share of overall revenue for producers and distributors (Gaustad 2019) as well as increasing the relative value of local titles for distributors and cinemas (Øfsti 2023). There is therefore reason to be wary of the ongoing disruption of film distribution practices and to protect and improve the local funding and exhibition infrastructures.
That said, there is undoubtedly a potential in VOD for small film industries, if perhaps only in global SVODs, when it comes to both funding film production and when it comes to reaching global audiences. Netflix in particular has proven to provide both funding and audiences for films from small markets on a scale that has not been possible previously. The Netflix Engagement Reports show how the Danish film A Beautiful Life generated 45.7 million hours of viewing in only one month (June 2023). Recalculated into “number of full-time viewers” (what Netflix now calls “Views”) this translates to close to 30 million viewers. Adjusted for co-viewing, it is likely that more than 40 million viewers watched this Danish language film that neither film critics in Denmark nor abroad seemed to appreciate. Additional data from Netflix shows that the film reached the Top 10 for non-English films in more than 70 countries all around the globe in June 2023. These numbers dwarf even the runaway success of Druk that reached 3.6 million admissions across 41 markets.
Challenges that need to be addressed in this regard thus include fundamental questions such as: What prohibits a service such as Netflix from commissioning locally produced films in Portugal, Lithuania, Estonia and Croatia? Is it a question of the (insufficiently strong) subscriber base domestically? Is it a question of low average revenue per subscriber? Is it a question of (lacking) the right kind of internationally oriented/experienced production company? Netflix’s deals with SF Studios for original commissions are interesting in this respect. Is it a question of whether the right kind of talent or production companies are available? Is it a question of Netflix prioritizing other formats such as serial fiction or entertainment shows?
Netflix has also proven to be able to find global audiences for non-commissioned films from small markets, even for films that failed at the box office. The Norwegian film Vikingulven (NO, 2022) reached less than 8,000 admissions from the domestic box office and was not theatrically released outside of Norway, but has reached 55.1 million views on Netflix. This example is also, however, tied to the success of the Netflix commissioned Troll (NO, 2022), which share the same writer, and both are produced by companies linked to SF Studios.
This also points to the role of sales agents and distribution companies in the sale and management of non-theatrical rights in bundles. When global platforms also become gatekeepers for local audiences, this adds another challenge to independent producers. Even when they are trying to reach predominantly local audiences on VOD. The lack of local films in the Estonian and Lithuanian Netflix’s catalogs could possibly be linked to the lack of distributors or other entities that could enter into output deals with global streamers that might be unwilling to negotiate with producers for the rights of a single title.
Concluding on the challenges for distribution of films from small markets in the era of the “US-based globally dispersed platform ecology” (Lobato 2024, vii), we find that all the CresCine markets are affected by the disruption of the old theatrical model, while the opportunities remain unevenly distributed.
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